Super Bowl Predictions & Bets

Sunday, February 4^th, 2018 marks the end of the 2017-2018 NFL season. The Philadelphia Eagles and the New England Patriots are going to face off in Minnesota to see who calls themselves world champions.

Both teams entered the playoffs 13-3 and atop their respective conferences, but it seems the Eagles we’re clear underdogs throughout the playoffs after losing their QB, Carson Wentz. They carry this “underdog” title into the Super Bowl, where the line opened as New England favored by 5.5 points, the highest since 2009. As the days got closer, the line has dropped to 4.5 and that’s where its been sitting for the past couple of days.

With the big game being just one day away, the Casual Sports Talk crew are ready to give you their predictions for this years Super Bowl, as well as have some fun talking bets on the best (and probably busiest) sports betting day of the year.

Ethan’s Prediction

Patriots 23

Eagles 20

As much as it pains me to give the Patriots another title, I truly think this is what’s going to take place on this day. I’ll lay the Eagles +4.5, but even then I’m not confident as to whether the Patriots will walk the game off by a field goal or with a touchdown.

The general consensus I’ve heard is that the Eagles are going to have a lead, keep it close the entire game, but eventually lose because of some controversial blown call somewhere.

The Eagles defense has all the capabilities to keep them in this game. Jim Schwartz attacking wide 9 defense has absolutely abused other teams this season, finding a tremendous amount of success and being an integral part of this teams Super Bowl run. Allowing 35 sacks all season, the New England offensive line may have some trouble keeping that talented defensive line from getting in the backfield quickly, but Tom Brady literally thrives under pressure and numbers prove it. He had the highest passer rating (111.3) when pressured this season, according to @NFLMatchup on Twitter.

Another problem Philadelphia will face is keeping Gronk under control. Rob Gronkowski is an absolute difference maker on the field, and the Eagles are going to have to find the right guy to cover him all game. Will they trust Malcolm Jenkins to come down from his safety position to cover Gronk all game? That’s where I feel they may find the most success. Flashback to Week 15 in their comeback win versus the Steelers, a big difference in that game was that the Steelers had nobody to cover Gronk, and he gashed them for 9 catches for 168 yards.

Nick Foles won’t be bad; he will be able to perform well enough with the weapons around him that compliment him well. Probably the biggest weapon Philly can use to beat New England would be Jay Ajayi. A trade deadline acquisition, Ajayi has barely been used during his time in Philadelphia. His most productive usage game in the regular season saw him getting 15 carries. They need to feed him the rock more to have success (especially with the extremely talented Philly o-line). New England allowed 4.7 YPC to opposing RB’s all season, tied for 2^nd most in the league. Roll Ajayi and they will keep the game close.

Ultimately, if I picked the Eagles to win this game and New England won, I would just tell myself “I knew this was going to happen”. As a fan, I’m hoping for an Eagles upset, but as a sports blogger, I know it’s very unlikely.

Brady's Prediction

Patriots 28

Eagles 17

Before I make my prediction I just want to drop some history and shine some light on how history can repeat itself. Back when the Patriots went on their 3 Super Bowl wins in 4 years run, they defeated both the Panthers in 2004 and the Eagles in 2005. Realize now that last season, the Patriots played the Falcons (an NFC South team just like the Panthers), and here they are trying to go back-to-back once more against the Eagles. 

Here's my prediction: 

I see the Eagles starting off the first quarter in a decent manor. They drive down the field to score a modest field goal. In the second quarter, the Eagles march on to score two touchdowns, making the score 17-0 at the half.

The Patriots change their game plan at half time and quickly score a TD to start the third quarter. Later in the quarter, the Patriots pin the Eagles deep in Eagles territory, forcing them to punt and to give Tom Brady excellent field position to work with. The third quarter ends 17-14 after another Patriots TD.

Getting into the fourth quarter, the Patriots drive down the field for a third straight time to make the game 21-17, chewing up a ton of clock time in the process. The Eagles refuse to give up, driving down the field before being forced into a decision on 4th down. Doug Peterson gambles but it doesn't work. Patriots take over, score one more touchdown for insurance and win the game 28-17.

Prop Bets

With the Super Bowl, comes the betting. Westgate Las Vegas Superbook has released 30 full pages of Super Bowl LII propositions that they offer to better, safe to say this is a gamblers’ Christmas. We here at Casual Sports Talk looked over the offers and found 4 prop bets common to any football game and 8 Super Bowl unique and fun prop bets.

Quick Summary

Common bets

Prop Bet	CST Prediction
Most penalty yards	Eagles
Tom Brady throws an interception	Yup
Patriots get touchdown in 1st Q	Nope
Brady throws touchdown pass in 4th Q	Yup

More fun bets

Prop Bet	CST Prediction
Who will throw TD pass 1st ? (Brady vs Foles)	Nick Foles
Rex Burkhead scores a TD	Yup
Will either team score 3 straight times?	Yup

Who will have more?

Prop Bet	CST Prediction
James Harden points vs Distance of 1st field goal	James Harden
Giannis Atentokoumpo points vs All the Patriots' points	Giannis Atentokoumpo
Gold medals won by the USA in the 2018 Olympics vs Eagles + Patriots 1st Q total points	USA Olympic gold medals
(2/4/18) Montreal Canadiens shots on goal vs Tom Brady completions	Montreal Canadiens
(2/4/18) DeMar DeRozen (Raptors) points vs Shortest made field goal	Shortest field goal

Our thinking

Here’s a CST guide to Super Bowl prop bets: 

Common Prop Bets

1.

We believe that the Eagles will have more penalty yards than the Patriots. Whether they’re actually (realistically not) friends with the referees or, the more likely, Bill Belichick always keeps his teams disciplined. They have 13 penalties in their last 5 games combined, totalling 110 yards (the only penalty in the Jags game came on a special teams play). During those 5 weeks, their opponents have 35 penalties totalling 390 yards.

Discipline may or may not be Bill Belichick’s middle name, but he does a fantastic job of teaching his players to both not commit penalties but also draw penalties. In the past 2 postseason games, Patriots opponents’ have committed 9 defensive penalties. All signs point to the Eagles to have significantly more penalty yards than the Patriots

2.

The Casual Sports Talk crew all agreed, even the corrupt Patriots fan, that Tom Brady will indeed throw an interception this game. Before the post season, he threw 6 interceptions in his last 6 regular season games and the Eagles D was top 5 in the league for interceptions this year (19). In his past 3 Super Bowl appearances, Tom has thrown 4 interceptions; all of this leads to Tom probably gifting the Eagles with an interception.

3.

Our “most likely” bet of the evening, as history really has our side with this one. As powerful as the Patriots really are, they’re somehow unable to score a touchdown in the 1^st quarter. In all 7 of their Super Bowl appearances in the Belichick/Brady era, the Patriots have failed to record a touchdown in the 1^st quarter…ever. With a total of 2 field goals in those 7 games, the Patriots tend to take a little of time before they fully get into the game. Cash out on their slow start.

4.

Following our narrative of the game, if the Patriots are going to start slow, they’re going to finish strong. If this Super Bowl is like the rest, the Eagles are going to jump into a lead, look like they have this game in the bag and then lose it all in the 4^th quarter when some crazy call happens that allows Brady to drive down the field and throw a touchdown. An important key to betting is to not have any of your bets offset, why would you want to win a bet and lose the other because you won the first one? Our common bets create a very likely narrative for this game, and we expect all of these to be correct.

Time to bring in the individual and interesting prop bets!

Fun Prop Bets 

1.

Hear us out: We see it very possible that the Patriots will be the first to score a field goal, responding to an Eagles touchdown. This season (and though out his entire career), Gostkowski has hit more field goals under 40 yards than over. So assume here he hits any field goal under 30 yards. James Harden is averaging 31.5 points per game this season and in the past 3 games against the Cavs (spanning 2 seasons long) he’s averaged 38 points per game. These stats make us rather confident laying Harden 5.5 points in this prop bet.

2.

Keeping with the basketball theme, We've decided that Giannis Atentokoumpo will outscore the entire New England Patriots team. The Pats averaged 28.6 points per game throughout the regular season (29.5 in the playoffs). Giannis is averaging 28.2 points per game, but is coming up against a Brooklyn Nets team which he dropped 41 points on last time. If the Patriots score 23 points like Ethan predicted or 28 points like Brady predicted, expect Giannis to blow this prop bet out of the water.

3.

This is a long-term bet right here, mainly cause they Olympics don’t end until the later part of February. Sticking with the narrative that the first quarter will be low scoring (just as it has been in the past), the US Winter Olympic team has a serious chance of winning more medals than the combined points of both the Eagles and the Patriots.

4.

As all of us are from Montreal, we found this one extremely compelling to place a bet on. The Canadiens are currently 6^th in the NHL averaging 33.7 shots per game while the Ottawa Senators (their opponents) are also 6^th in the NHL, but in shots against per game, giving up 33.1. This cooks up a recipe for a lot of shots, definitely 6.5 more than Tom Brady completions.

5.  

Finishing off the created narrative, if Tom Brady comes out slow, we feel Nick Foles is going to come out fast. Both Brady and Ethan believe the Eagles will jump out to an early lead on a Nick Foles TD pass to Alshon Jeffery, making Nick Foles the first of the two QBs to throw a TD.

6. 

Here's the thing, the Patriots love to use versatile running backs, their backfield is basically 3 different versions of Dion Lewis. Moving to version #3, Rex Burkhead will score a touchdown this game. Just like in the past, the most recent being James White last year, a Patriots running back will just go off this game. We believe Rex Burkhead will come out of nowhere (Brady predicts a 10 catch, 89 yards, 1TD game) to make a big difference in this game.

7. 

If you want a good Super Bowl, you're praying for one with some back-and-forth action and maybe a good comeback or two. Note that the Patriots are very very good at coming back when down at halftime (too many examples to show) and can sometimes be unstoppable in the 2nd half. Its very easy to see them scoring on three straight possessions.

8.

The last of our prop bets, we believe that the shortest made field goal (favoured by 1.5) will be longer than the total amount of points Demar Derozan scores against the Grizzlies. Demar is averaging 24.6 points per game this season, while we believe the shortest field goal won't even be from 20-29 yards out, but in between 30-39 yards. Brady brought up a good point in discussion, Doug Peterson will most likely want to gamble on the biggest stage, sending his offence out on 4th down when they are close to the Patriots end zone.

Well there you have it, Casual Sports Talks official Super Bowl LII bets & predictions! Hope you guys enjoy the game and make sure to tune-in to our 2nd podcast release on Monday for a Super Bowl recap and talk on many other topics! 

Make sure to follow us on: 

Twitter: @CasualSportsPod

Snapchat: CasualSportsPod

Facebook: Casual Sports Talk

Soundcloud: Casual Sports Talk

Keep checking casualsportstalk.com for the latest updates!