The Stanton Sweepstakes

It’s not every day that an MVP is available on the trade block. The last time a trade involving the reigning-MVP occurred was in 2004. Alex Rodriguez had been dealt to the New York Yankees in exchange for Alfonso Soriano and Joaquin Arias. The time before that? 1914. Safe to say, this doesn’t happen every day in the MLB.

Now it seems more-and-more likely, for the 3^rd time in MLB history, that a reigning-MVP will get traded. Giancarlo Stanton trade talks are increasingly heating up day after day, especially with winter GM meeting currently taking place. This begs many questions: Will he actually be traded? Who would trade for him? What would a Giancarlo Stanton trade look like?

There are 6 teams rumored to have the most interest and who are willing to provide the best return for Stanton; the Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants, Phillies, Yankees and Red Sox. The price to pay for a 28-year-old Slugger who just dominated the league slashing .281/.376/.631 with 59 homers and 132 RBIs (!!!!!!!!!!!) will be extremely high. Whether or not these teams can satisfy the Marlins asking price will be further discussed.

However, before analyzing the potential realistic return, one must understand the needs that this deal should fulfill for the Marlins. 

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Marlins’ Needs

1. Move Giancarlo’s Contract

In 2014, the Marlins signed Stanton to a record-breaking contract. As a matter of fact, the largest-ever financial guarantee in MLB history. As of 2018, Stanton will cost at least $25M/year through 2020 (although probably until 2028).

It is already public knowledge that the new ownership group of the Marlins, led ‘in name’ by Derek Jeter, want to roll back the Marlins payroll and send their team into a rebuild phase. With some large contracts currently on the team, Miami will require more prospects and value players on cheaper contracts (good players with little service or arbitration deals) in return for Giancarlo.  The Marlins should not seek another superstar currently receiving a luxurious contract as return.

2. Improve the Farm System

If Miami wants to start a rebuild, they must replenish the farm system and become a younger team. It may be a lengthy process and excruciating for the fans to watch, but they’re going to have to follow the plan and trust the process (Just look at the Houston Astros).

Miami’s farm system is extraordinarily weak. After the past seasons trade deadline, Bleacher Report placed them as the 28^th ranked farm system in the league, out of 30 MLB teams.

It’s not hard to tell why they’re ranked so low. They have some pitching prospects but not many. Their best would be 20-year-old former 7^th overall pick, Braxton Garrett. Even then, Garrett just had Tommy John surgery, so nobody knows how he'll recover and/or if he will be the same pitcher they drafted. Miami's 2^nd best prospect would be the 13^th overall pick from this past draft, Trevor Rodgers, but he is miles away from being MLB ready.

3. Pitching

To be blunt, Miami’s pitching sucks. They had the 5^th highest team ERA, tied for 1^st in lowest amount of Quality starts, 3^rd most blown saves and had the 5^th highest WHIP in 2017. Safe to say, they need help anywhere they can get it in the pitching department (starting rotation, bullpen & closer).

Their supposed #1 rotation guy, Wei-Yin Chen, is 32-years-old and has been dealing with injuries for seasons. He is not the answer. Jose Urena had a breakout season and Dan Straily showed he’s capable of being on the back-end rotation, but that’s all the positives to be found from the pitching core.

If Stanton were to go, the Marlins MUST either receive a quality pitcher who can help them now or a great pitching prospect (or two) for the future to consider this deal a success.

4. Replace Stanton

Of course, replacing a .281 batting average, 59 Home Runs and 132 RBIs with one person is unlikely, that is why the Marlins are going to need multiple upgrades to their current roster.  

If they do not want to lose productivity and wish to keep salary low, they are going to have to dip into “Moneyball” tactics. This way, they can upgrade specific places of production without breaking the bank.

Justin Bour has had his best season to date, but sits at 29 years old and still can’t hit against lefties. Short term replacement may not be necessary but they should definitely look to get a first baseman prospect for the future.

The Marlins have no 3^rd baseman, no shortstop, and a void in right field if Stanton is dealt. Clearly, there are many needs to be addressed. Derek Dietrich, who heavily started due to injuries to Martin Prado and the trade of Adeiny Hechavarria, is a great bench utility man to have, but that’s all he should be.

The top-end of their lineup is actually impressive. Dee Gordon, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Justin Bour should be regular fixes in the lineup and keep their spots, but the remaining 4 batters are weak and must be upgraded.

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Possible Trade Scenarios

Now that we know what the Marlins need, let’s see what other teams can offer for the monster that is Giancarlo Stanton.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have a plethora of pitching prospects, so they could be willing to give up 1 or 2. The Cardinals will be reluctant to get rid of their #1 overall prospect (#14 in the MLB), Alex Reyes.

The other options would have to be #3 prospect Jack Flaherty, #9 prospect Sandy Alcantara and #10 prospect Junior Fernandez. Flaherty and Alcantara would be ready in a year or 2 (or less), so combining them with a lower pitching prospect might get the trade talks starting.

Adding in another prospect, the Cardinals will likely give up a prospect like Kramer Robertson or Edmundo Sosa. Both are quick shortstops, a position Miami needs, with great fielding and who hit for average. Throw one of them into the deal and keep on chugging.

Last pieces of the trade should address positions of need currently for the Marlins. With holes at 3B, SS and RF, a player like Stephen Piscotty

could be the final piece to add to the deal. He was a former highly touted prospect and showed promise 2 years ago, but had an extremely down year and struggled last season. With the emergence of top prospect Harrison Bader, and an already crowded OF, the Cardinals could be willing to move Piscotty and replace him directly with Stanton.

Another possibility would be for the Cardinals to move the contract of Dexter Fowler. However, they currently are not worried about contracts after the year 2020.

POSSIBLE TRADE:

St. Louis Cardinals receive:

Giancarlo Stanton

Miami Marlins receive:

Jack Flaherty, another pitching prospect, Kramer Robertson and Stephen Piscotty

Los Angeles Dodgers

Believe it or not, there’s a strong possibility that the rich become even richer. Money isn’t an issue in LA, so they can easily afford Stanton’s colossal contract.

The deal is unlikely without Miami acquiring one of Walker Buehler, their #1 overall prospect & #10 overall according to MLB.com, or Yadier Alvarez, their #3 overall prospect & #45 overall. As previously noted, the Marlins need pitching desperately, both Buehler and Alvarez look more and more likely to be great pitchers who should reach the MLB by 2019.

With an aging Rich Hill and potentially losing Yu Darvish to free agency, the Dodgers are going to need one of their future pitching prospects, so it’s unlikely Miami will be able to pull off acquiring both Alvarez and Buehler.

The most significant piece the Dodgers would likely send to the Marlins is Yasiel Puig. Stanton is an automatic start in right field. Therefore, Puig would be forced out of his starting spot and shipped to Miami.

In a marketing perspective, Puig and Miami are a great match. With their stadium located in the “Little Havana” area of Miami, acquiring Puig, a Cuban defect, and making him the face of the franchise would attract thousands of new fans towards the Miami Marlins franchise and the brand.

POSSIBLE TRADE:

Los Angeles Dodgers receive:

Giancarlo Stanton

Miami Marlins receive:

Yadier Alvarez and Yasiel Puig

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants have been hovering around the top tier of franchises for the past 8 years consisting of a very talented core nucleus of batters and pitchers. Acquiring Stanton would not only directly replace the aging, expensive and injury-prone Hunter Pence, but it would probably be one of the final pieces they need to construct another championship caliber team.

If the Giants are in “win now” mentality, with the amount of talent they have hovering around the 28-32 age range, they’d certainly be willing to give up top pitching prospect Ty Beede, as a result.

Alongside Ty Beede, it would require a couple more prospects and somebody who can serve on the MLB roster while doing a half-decent job in the time being. If I’m the GM of the Marlins, I’m asking the Giants to add in an outfielder prospect like Heliot Ramos, their #4 overall prospect, Bryan Reynolds, their #5 prospect, or Austin Slater, their #6 prospect.

With two top prospects already in the deal, the final piece could be a Jarrett Parker or a Kelby Tomlinson type of player. Parker or Tomlinson would provide a limited use (decent players to fill in roster spots for a couple of years) but do not have much potential to become stars.

POSSIBLE TRADE:

San Francisco Giants receive:

Giancarlo Stanton

Miami Marlins receive:

Ty Beede, Heliot Ramos and Jarrett Parker

Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia is by far, the strangest team to have been linked with Stanton. Stanton has openly told the Miami Herald that he did not want to be a part of a big rebuild, and the Phillies have been one of the worst teams in baseball for the past couple of years.

That being said, Bleacher Report ranks Philly’s farm system as 7^th best in the MLB, and with an absurd amount of money to sign free agents, they may be able to lure Stanton to waive his no-trade clause and come to Philly to accelerate their rebuild.

The Phillies will likely give up a piece of their rotation. Options include, Nick Pivetta, Ben Lively or Zach Eflin, all being young, lower-end parts of the rotation. With Stanton entering at right field, a decent player like Aaron Altherr becomes expendable and Miami could easily use him as their starting right fielder for the 2018 season.

With the plethora of prospects that Philly has at their disposal, I can see two more high-end prospects working their way to the Marlins in this deal.

With a young and productive infield, Philly can consider former #1 prospect J.P. Crawford as disposable, especially after the down-year he had last season. Crawford still has a lot of promise and would instantly become the Marlins best prospect.

The last prospect to fill out the end of this deal could be another pitching or infield prospect, both positions of need for Miami’s future.

POSSIBLE TRADE:

Philadelphia Phillies receive:

Giancarlo Stanton

Miami Marlins receive:

Zach Eflin, Aaron Altherr, J.P. Crawford and Franklyn Kilome

New York Yankees

Wouldn’t this be something, eh? Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the same lineup. That would be a scary 1-2 punch for any pitcher to come up against and it’s very possible. Similarly, to the Dodgers, the Yankees have money and according to Bleacher Report, the Yankees have prospects (3^rd ranked to be exact).

For the Marlins to allow Giancarlo to join forces with the reigning-AL rookie of the year, New York is going to have to give up several prospects, and maybe a starter or two.

Will they give up Gleyber Torres? I’m rather unsure. Not only their #1 ranked prospect but also ranked #1 in MLB.com’s top 100 prospects list, Torres seems destined for big league success and the Yankees may want to keep him for the future, if they can. For arguments sake, let’s say the Yankees keep Torres.

If they keep Torres, a scenario where they wouldn’t give up a couple more top prospects, like Estevan Florial, Domingo Acevedo and Albert Abreu is unlikely. All 3 are top 10 prospects in the Yankees system, but this deal lets them keep 4 of their top 5 prospects, including 2 potential top rotation pitchers.

Florial has power potential, but is still about 2-3 years away and anything can happen. With Stanton and Judge in that outfield, even if Florial is MLB ready, there’s no room for him in the lineup.

Even with the 3 top prospects, Miami still needs current pitching help. Throw in a reliever like Chad Green, coming off a career year and it could bring this deal close to fruition.

The last piece to add to this deal would be Chase Headley. Adding him would be a “win-win” scenario for both sides. At 33, Headley still has production left in him for a year or two. The Marlins would be able to slot him into their lineup right away and use him while their farm system develops. The Yankees would be able to officially make way for Gleyber Torres with a $13 million salary off the books.

POSSIBLE TRADE:

New York Yankees receive:

Giancarlo Stanton

Miami Marlins receive:

Estevan Florian, Domingo Acevedo, Albert Abreu, Chad Green, Chase Headley

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are shopping for sluggers this offseason and can either go through free agency (Eric Hosmer, JD Martinez, etc.) or pull off an off-season trade for a superstar for the 2^nd season in a row (re: Chris Sale last year).

Since the Red Sox gave away all their prospects last season, there aren’t many to choose from, but two have shown potential; Jay Groome and Michael Chavis. Groome is a LHP who MLB.com prospect list writers have praised him to be potentially one of “the best pitcher(s) signed and developed by the Red Sox since Roger Clemens.” With Rafael Devers, 21 years old, covering third base for the foreseeable future, they would be willing to deal Michael Chavis.

Since the prospect pool is weak, the Red Sox would have to give up pieces from their MLB roster. A report from cbssports.com stated, they’d have to cough up somebody like Andrew Benintendi.

With a ton of money locked up in players until after 2019, the Red Sox do not have much financial wiggle room for Stanton’s contract. Giving up Benintendi would save future cap space, but would hurt the Red Sox right now with the luxury tax.

POSSIBLE TRADE:

Boston Red Sox receive:

Giancarlo Stanton

Miami Marlins receive:

Michael Chavis, Andrew Benintendi & Henry Owens

So What Happens Now?

In short, we wait and see. It’s the worst kept secret in baseball that Giancarlo Stanton is on the block. Now it is on the Marlins to evaluate the best options put forward and decide whether or not to pull the trigger.

It should be noted Stanton currently has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and reports suggest he would reject a trade to both the Red Sox and the Cardinals.

Whomever wins the Stanton sweepstakes will receive a special player. As long as he stays healthy, Stanton is a franchise player in his prime.

Now will likely be the highest point of value the Marlins will be able to get out of trading Stanton, as he can fully opt out of his contract in just 2 seasons.

With a trustworthy younger core of hitters, the Marlins need to gain some solid pitching and younger prospects for the future and they can potentially be set as a playoff contender for the next 5-10 years.

Please note these ‘hypothetical’ deals are estimations of the value each team may have to offer to acquire Giancarlo Stanton. I do not expect to be right with the exact players in any of these deals if a trade occurs, so if I do I’ll be as surprised as you are.

What do you think of my analysis? Are these deals realistic? Which team could the Marlins get the most value out of? Will Giancarlo Stanton even be traded? Don’t hesitate to let me know your feelings in the comments below or tweet at me @CasualSportsEth.