NBA Fantasy Path to the Finals

by Ethan Crystal

The NBA All Star weekend is here, marking just past the halfway point in the NBA season. While the NBA season ends in just a couple of months, the NBA fantasy season ends just a few weeks before, meaning this is crunch time for any NBA fantasy team trying to make the playoffs.

A ton of leagues have their trade deadlines coming up very soon, if they haven’t passed already. Fantasy teams, just like real NBA teams, are looking for the final pieces they need to go for that deep playoff run. Whether it’s through trade or pickup, there are some players out there who can make a difference on YOUR roster from now until the finals.

Here are 5 players you should buy/pickup & 5 players you should trade/drop before it’s too late!

BUY

Retrieved from: http://nba.nbcsports.com/2018/02/07/that-time-bogdan-bogdanovic-was-choked-by-his-coach/

1. Bogdan Bogdanovic - SG, SF - Sacramento Kings (37% owned in Yahoo leagues)

The first player on the list is a name not many people know at this moment. Bogdan originally came from the Euro League and was drafted by Phoenix in the 2014 NBA draft before being traded to Sacramento in the Marquese Chriss deal.

In his first season up to now, Bogdan is averaging 11.5 points, 3.2 assists and 2.7 rebounds per game (solid numbers for a rookie). This isn’t what makes him an interesting pickup now though.

Bogdan seems to have a ton of upside in picking him up, and the recent numbers (albeit in a short time frame) to be worth a waiver flyer. With the Kings in tank mode, the best course of action for them would be to put the ball in their young players hands and give them the experience they need to develop. This means more minutes for young role players like Justin Jackson, Frank Mason III, Skal Labissiere and more offense running through starters like De’Aaron Fox and Bogdan Bogdanovic.

While Fox has shown some inconsistencies, Bogdan seems to be the focal point of this Kings offense. His minutes have increased, 31.6 over his past 5 games, and so has his productivity. Over those same 5 games, he’s averaging 15.4 points 4.8 assists and 4.8 rebounds per game. Another reason to buy the Bogdan hype? He just shined this weekend, taking home MVP of the 2018 Rising Stars challenge, leading Team World to a 155-124 win over Team USA with his 26 points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists.

  

Retrieved from: https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2018/1/14/16889606/nba-scores-2018-zach-lavine-injury-return-warriors-raptors-demar-derozan-nets-wizards-quincy-acy 

2. Zach LaVine - PG, SG - Chicago Bulls (76% owned in Yahoo leagues)

Here’s a player that you may have to trade for, already being owned in a little more than ¾ of Yahoo fantasy basketball leagues. Zach seems to be finding his form after finally coming back from ACL surgery in mid-January.

Chicago eased LaVine back into the game, keeping his minutes around 22 per game, but the Bulls have seemed to unleash their future superstar in February, bringing him back up to full speed at around 31 minutes per game. Over that time, LaVine has averaged 22.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists on 19 field goals attempted per game.

When the Bulls traded for LaVine in the offseason, it seemed clear that he was going to be the centerpiece of their rebuild. He’s going to need to prove to this organization that he’s the guy he traded for and they’re giving him the chance to prove it even if they’re in tank mode for the rest of the season.

LaVine has a lot to play for, incentivized by a probable contract extension at seasons end. He’s going to have to justify his value with continual strong performances just as he’s done in February so far.

LaVine is primed to finish the season very strong and seems like an excellent candidate to trade for if you’re looking to increase the quality of depth on your roster.

 

Retrieved from: https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2018/1/31/16954082/2018-nba-golden-state-warriors-utah-jazz-is-joe-ingles-an-mvp-candidate

3. Joe Ingles - SG, SF - Utah Jazz (65% owned in Yahoo leagues)

The Aussie Assassin (no we don’t actually know if that’s his nickname) finds his way on this list. He’s been a very solid fantasy player this season overall, delivering low key top 100 value for the majority of the season.

This is Joe’s breakout season, a year after getting a rather big contract from the Utah Jazz. He’s averaging career high’s in minutes, field goal percentage, 3 point percentage, rebounds, assists and points. His 3 point percentage is 2^nd highest in the entire NBA, right behind Klay Thompson.

During the Jazz 11-game win streak, he’s averaging 54% shooting from the field and from deep good enough for 15.9 points (breaking his career high twice). With the departure of Rodney Hood, Ingles has officially become the second scoring option, behind Donovan Mitchell, and will continue to provide top 100-fantasy value even when Utah’s hot streak ends.

Ingles’s production in the last 11 games will realistically not stay for the duration of the season, but he’s a very safe bet to continue being a extremely relevant fantasy option.

 

Retrieved from: https://www.celticsblog.com/2015/11/18/9757238/dwight-powell-salvaging-rondo-trade-for-dallas-mavericks

4. Dwight Powell - PF, C - Dallas Mavericks (38% owned in Yahoo leagues)

Here’s a great player if you team needs any help in the rebounding department. Powell has been on fire recently and finds himself a very hot pickup in fantasy leagues, so pick him up before he’s gone.

He’s been trending up in his last 10 games, seeing increases across the board in minutes, points, rebounds and field goal percentage (among others). Dwight has scored more than 17 points 5 times in his last 6 games and has gotten at least 6 rebounds in each of those games.

This is exactly the same situation as Bogdan, a bad team wants to give minutes and experience to their young players. For the time being, Powell and Dennis Smith Jr. seem like the two players with the highest upside on this Mavericks roster.

This move may be more of a short term move, with Powell’s inconsistencies still an issue in our books, but Powell can be the difference in winning a matchup whether fan points or categories. He’s a must add right now while he’s hot, hoping that he will keep it going for the rest of the season and deliver solid low-end value.

 

Retrieved from: https://www.si.com/nba/2017/10/28/brandon-ingram-los-angeles-lakers-development

5. Brandon Ingram - SG, SF - Los Angeles Lakers (78% owned in Yahoo league)

Brandon Ingram has enjoyed a spectacular sophomore season in the NBA. He’s been the focal point of that Lakers offense and is a serious candidate for most improved player in our opinions.

Even with the Lakers 23-34 record, Ingram has still established himself as an integral part of what they’re doing there in Los Angeles.

Same kind of scenario here, LA wants to get the ball in Ingram’s hands and see what he’s able to produce, so far this season he’s been so good.

While some people think the arrival of Isaiah Thomas may discount the value of Brandon Ingram, you should use that to get him in a trade. In fact, Thomas bringing up the ball (or even Lonzo Ball when he returns from injury) can only be an upgrade for Ingram’s overall value. In his 2 seasons starting in Boston, Isaiah 6.2 and 5.9 assists per game. Both Thomas and Lonzo are passers of the ball and use their athletic ability to open up space on the floor, letting Ingram be free to move around and find the open lane/shot.

Ingram’s value certainly isn’t low, but if you’re looking for someone to deepen the talent on your roster and have the excess value somewhere to give up, pull the trigger on him.

SELL

Retrieved from: http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2017/11/jayson_tatum_boston_celtics_ro_9.html

1. Jayson Tatum - SF, PF - Boston Celtics (78% owned in Yahoo leagues)

The 3^rd overall pick from last seasons draft started off the season on absolute fire, shooting at a 50% from the field and 47.7% from the deep through the month of December. He delivered top 50-fantasy value to anyone who drafted him in the final rounds or was even lucky enough to pick him up on the waiver wire. If it wasn’t for the spectacular play of both Ben Simmons and Donovan Mitchell, Tatum seriously deserved to be in the deep conversation for rookie of the year.

For some reason, when the calendar turned to 2018, Tatum fell off the map. His points didn’t drop extremely, neither did his rebounds or assists tremendously, but his shooting percentage has been abysmal.

Boston seems to be putting the ball in his hands more often, but Tatum isn’t delivering. This drop off should warm possible owners that Tatum’s fantasy floor is lower than most expected coming into the season. While his upside hasn’t changed, his inefficiencies from the field have made him more of a risky plan from now on.

Its extremely likely Tatum finished the season as a top 100-fantasy player, purely based on his early season form, but this year is looking more and more like a tale of two halves and Tatum’s second half isn’t that impressive.

Retrieved from: https://sports.yahoo.com/someone-score-bulls-why-not-012717290.html

2. Justin Holiday - SG, SF - Chicago Bulls (53% owned in Yahoo leagues)

If you haven’t traded Holiday yet, you might even want to consider dropping him. He was trusted with the starter role at the beginning of the season and started off relatively hot. His drop-off however, has been terrible.

On the season, he’s attempted 11.4 shots per game and is shooting a terrible 37.9% from the field. Especially in the last 10 games, he’s been just absent and nothing more productive than the role player he’s been for years now.

With Zach LaVine coming back, Holiday is set to lose shots & minutes to the guy with the brighter future (understandable of course). He hasn’t produced recently and should drop off more with the Bulls seemingly in tank mode.

Retrieved from: https://www.sbnation.com/2018/2/7/16989774/nba-trade-rumors-avery-bradley-spurs-clippers

3. Avery Bradley - PG, SG - Los Angeles Clippers (69% owned in Yahoo leagues)

Avery said it himself after LA’s last win against Boston he’s struggling to find his role offensively with the Clippers.

Since being traded, Bradley is averaging 9.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists and a measly 0.8 steals. Notoriously a very defensive oriented player, Bradley still usually got a lot of his fantasy value from scoring, rebounding and steals. They’re all going downhill after the trade.

This Clippers team has a lot of offensive guys (Harris, Rivers, Williams, Gallinari) leaving Bradley without many opportunities to produce offensively. Gallinari and Rivers both returned from injuries recently and that bumped Bradley down the totem pole in Loa Angeles. He hasn’t played more than 28 minutes in the past 5 games and should continue to lose minutes as Los Angeles’ season winds down.

He’s no longer the 2^nd/3^rd option he was used to being when he was in Boston and Detroit and it’s clear he’s not worth owning in fantasy basketball if he’s not.

Retrieved from: http://www.slamonline.com/nba/isaiah-thomas-im-ready-to-put-on-a-show-for-the-lakers/

4. Isaiah Thomas - PG - Los Angeles Lakers (86% owned in Yahoo leagues)

You’re probably thinking how is it possible that Isaiah Thomas can have such low value at the moment, but he does. A ton of people thought that the trade to LA would give him such an upgrade in value, well its not.

In the present time, with an injured Lonzo Ball, Thomas will have more value than he did in Cleveland purely because he’s bringing the ball up the floor. We’ve seen how successful Thomas has been with the ball in his hand before and this could help Los Angeles in the short run. When Lonzo comes back, it should be back to the bench for I.T. Watching Isaiah play, it seems that most teams are able to contain him and its very possible he hasn’t fully recovered yet from his hip injury.

If you’re an owner, capitalize on his name value and sell him now before his ceiling and floor both drop so much lower than they are right now.

This may be the only player where we do accept a counter argument, as being moved to the bench may ultimately make I.T more valuable just like it has in previous seasons. He still may be useful for assist purposes, but not much else until he finds a new team this offseason.

Retrieved from:https://www.brewhoop.com/2017/9/13/16290548/milwaukee-bucks-roster-ranking-2017-jabari-parker-tears-into-3rd-place

5. Jabari Parker - SF, PF - Milwaukee Bucks (62% owned in Yahoo leagues)

If you waited on Parker all season, or traded a valuable part of your roster to obtain him, this is not going to be easy to hear. There is a very slim chance that Jabari is going to return to his pre-injury form this season.

His entire career has been riddled with injuries. It just seems that every time he starts to peak and show why he was drafted so high, he has to deal with another injury. Coming off his 2^nd torn ACL, Jabari returned to action almost 365 days after the injury.

His limit has been placed at 20 minutes a game and Milwaukee, even while being in the playoff hunt, does not want to risk another injury to a key piece in their future.

If you were expecting Jabari to return and average 20.1 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists, your expectations are not going to be met at all. He’s going to be eased back into play and should return to full form next season.

He will not deliver top 75-fantasy value this season, but can possibly be a top 125-fantasy player just because Milwaukee’s growing injury list forcing him into situations where he needs to play.

His upside is not as high as many people think, you can use that to get value in return on a trade where you get Parker off your team.

Have any other questions on the rest of season outlook for any of your players?

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