College Football Bets - Week 12

With a record of 6-3-1 ATS in my past 2 weeks, I’m riding hot going into Week 12 of the College Football season. The season is starting to dwindle down as the playoff race intensifies; yet this week has a ton of matchups that just resemble the Week 1 easy matchups that most teams face. Looking at the schedule, I’m seeing a ton of extremely high spreads, and while some games I stay away from, some I absolutely love picking the underdog knowing that while they may not win, they’ll probably cover.

TCU @ Texas Tech (+6)

            There have been 2 times I’ve picked TCU in these prediction articles this season, and I’m 0-2 while picking them. This week, coming off an awful loss to Oklahoma, TCU travels to Jones AT&T Stadium to face the Red Raiders of Texas Tech.

            Texas Tech bounced back last week against Baylor (but does that really even count as bouncing back) to end a 4-game losing skid. They’ve been fantastic offensively all season, putting up close to 350 passing yards per game and just above 38 points. Where they lack is their defense and that’s what brings them to the 5-5 record they’re at.

Red Raiders allow 300 yards passing a game and just under 35 points, so this game does have the makings to be a bit of a shootout. If that is the case, I don’t think TCU can keep up with Texas Tech’s offensive firepower. Throughout the past 5 weeks, the most points the Horned Frogs have given up was 38 to a Baker Mayfield-led Sooners. It shows me that while this defense has been one of the better defenses in the FBS this season, I believe it’s peaked and they’re about to spiral downhill.

Another key contributor in my pick here is that TCU starting QB, Kenny Hill, has been ruled out of this contest. With former four-star recruit freshman Shawn Robinson having such limited work, I don’t see him being prepared enough, both actually prepared in practice and mentally, to lead them in enemy territory and covering this spread (let alone winning).

TCU has given up over 300 passing yards to QBs 4 times this year. They come up against a gunslinger in the Senior QB Nic Shimonek. In his first full season as starter, Shimonek has a spectacular 70% completion rate (71.4% at home), 3314 yards and a 4:1 TD:INT ratio. Surrounded by a great complimentary receiver core, I see Tech having no trouble moving the ball up field against this Horned Frog defense.

I’ve heaped praise on TCU all year and I just think they’ve peaked and can really only finish the season on a low note. A huge factor here for my decision, turnovers. In the first 5 games of the season, this defense has had 7 interceptions with a turnover difference of +4. The 5 games since, only 1 interception and a turnover difference of -2.

If they can’t force any turnovers, Shimonek, Coutee and the rest of the Red Raider offense will just consistently move the ball up field  and Tech will not only cover the spread, but they’ll win.

Arizona (+3) @ Oregon

            My second game of the day takes me to the Pac-12, betting on a team I bet against last week. Arizona goes back on the road to face an Oregon team that’s coming off an embarrassing lost @ Washington. I think that Khalil Tate continues his spectacular season, solidifies himself as a real candidate in the Heisman race, and improves Arizona’s record to 8-3 overall (6-2 in conference).

            Oregon started the season 4-1, winning some impressive games, their smallest margin of victory being by 7 and their only loss being by 2. If this game was a month ago, I would have chosen Oregon. Oh but how times have changed. Since then, Oregon has gone 1-4, scoring over 14 points only once and looks completely deflated.

            Win or loss, Oregon’s defense always gives up a ton of points, so this will probably be a high scoring game. They key is going to have to be for Oregon to solve their offensive struggles and Arizona might be the team that helps them do that. Arizona does not have a good defense, and Royce Freeman may run rampant over this run defense that’s given up a ton of yards all year.

            Justin Herbert returns from an injury this week, a hopeful sight for the Ducks. I think he’ll need some time to get back into game shape and I think he struggles a bit this week. Oregon needs this win but I don’t think it happens this week for them.

            Khalil Tate is having the season of his life. He came really out of nowhere and now is in the conversation for the Heisman trophy.  Since week 5, he’s rushed for over 1200 yards…. And he’s a quarterback. Arizona has one of the most prolific offenses in the country, gaining over 500 yards of total offense per game, and that will be too much for Oregon to handle.

            Give me the Wildcats on the money-line here, as I don’t think Oregon is ready just yet to return to their early-season form.  Khalil Tate will run all over the Ducks and give Arizona another impressive win.

SMU @Memphis (-11)

            Not often do I feature a game from the American conference, but this game looks too juicy for me to pass off. The 24^th ranked, 8-1 Memphis Tigers are home this week to face the Mustangs of SMU.  Memphis has been a very low-key team this year in my eyes, but probably one of the most solid teams in the nation.

            Memphis has been an absolute offensive juggernaut all season. Their only loss comes against a very formidable UCF, and the week after they responded by dropping 70 (!!!) points away against UConn. They’ve balled out all season with (also one of the most underrated QBs in college football in my opinion) Riley Ferguson at the helm. Complemented by their single-season record for receiving yards record holder, Anthony Miller, this offense is ready to put up tons of points against a weaker defense that allows 469 yards and just over 32 points per game.

            I wouldn’t sleep on SMU, I think they keep it close but end up losing by a couple TDs (Memphis covering the spread). They’ve also quietly had a good season lead by sophomore QB Ben Hicks and complemented by stud junior Courtland Sutton. They’ve had some impressive wins this season, putting up a ton of points, but they’ve also been outplayed a lot by some better teams and come into this game losers of 2 straight and a weak in-conference record of 3-3. Honestly, if Sutton comes back next year, SMU will be a much better team and may actually surprise a few doubters. But I’m not betting on them based on next year, I’m better Memphis based on now.

            Home field advantage may pay extreme dividends for the Tigers here, as Ben Hicks is an extremely different QB at home compared to on the road. At Home, he has thrown for 15 TDs and only 1 INT, on the road… only 9TDs and 6INTs. He’s struggled against ranked teams this year. Even though they give up yards, they’ve forced quite a few turnovers this season, with 23 total forced turnovers. Senior linebacker Genard Avery has already passed his previous season highs in both tackles for loss and sacks, in 4 fewer games. Freshman Terrell “TJ” Carter has come alive this season, ball-hawking 4 Interceptions and standing out in a defense that gives up yards but doesn’t give up points.

            A thing to note, in the past 3 matchups against SMU, Memphis has won by a combined 162-17. Yea, you read that right. Memphis has been dominant and they’ll continue to roll this year.

            A team that is 95^th ranked in defensive efficiency like SMU, will give up a ton to a team like Memphis, I’ll swallow the 11 points here, give me the favorite at home as Memphis continues its march towards a prime bowl game.

UCLA @ USC (-15)

            Last week, the Trojans game was a push, but they proved to me that they have the capabilities to be the team people thought they would be at the beginning of the year.  This week’s an intense rivalry against UCLA, a game where I usually would predict a closer outcome, but UCLA has been so bad this year I have to give this one to SC.

            I’ll continue heaping praise on Sam Darnold, as he continued to roll against the Buffaloes last week, throwing for 329 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs. Darnold seems to be growing more and more comfortable each week and seems to be returning to his last season form. USC’s offense has been scorching as of recent games, and seems prime to continue rolling against an abysmal defense.

            With USC’s defense as weak as it’s been, Josh Rosen will totally put up points against a team that allows over 400 yards per game. I can easily see the Bruins putting up a very respectable 28 points against the Trojans.

            A major key in this game will be Ronald Jones. He ran for 142 yards against Colorado last week and I’m certain he will continue an extremely spectacular season against a very weak UCLA run defense. In the 3 games since he was shut down against Notre Dame, he’s rushed for 552 yards and 6 TDs. I see him as one of the most underrated backs in college football, as he’s obviously behind Love and Barkley in name value, but him and Darnold are the glue to this offense.

            Bet the over. I’m extremely certain that this game will end something like 56-28 for USC, covering the over/under of 71.

            If any 2-loss teams can make the college playoff by seasons end, it’s either these Trojans or the Buckeyes. Fight on Trojans as they win this game easily.

Clinging to his 3-3 record from last week, here are the yet to be determined Fried’s Fixes/Faliures:

TCU (-6) @ Texas Tech

Oklahoma (-38.5) @ Kansas

Nebraska (+25.5) @ Penn State

Texas A&M (+2.5) @ Ole Miss

Michigan (+7) @ Wisconsin

Mercer (+48) @ Alabama

And here are some other games I like as well:

Michigan (+7) @ Wisconsin

Iowa State @ Baylor (+8.5)

Syracuse (+13) @ Louisville

Purdue @ Iowa (-7)

Kansas State (+19.5) @ Oklahoma State

Georgia Tech @ Duke (+7)

Houston (-9.5) @ Tulane

FIU (+14.5) @ FAU

Nevada @ San Diego State (-16.5)

Alright, there are my picks for this week! Good luck to everyone, hope we stay hot!