College Football Bets - Week 11

I’m riding a high right now. 4-1 for my predictions for Week 10 and I’m hoping to keep this rolling through Week 11. Not going to lie there are some very tough matchups this week, a lot of games I’m not sure about that can go any way. Since I have to make a pick regardless of if I think it’s going to be close or not, here are some of my predictions for what’s going to go down Week 11.

Duke @ Army (+3.0)

            Let’s start in West Point, where the Blue Devils of Duke visit the Black Knights of Army. Army is coming in very hot, winning its last 5 games, and looks to end their last home game of the season with a win (which would bring them to a perfect 6-0 at home this season). Duke, on the other hand, is trying to get back into the win column after being losers of 5 straight.

            This is another line that doesn’t make sense to me. West Point is known to be an extremely tough place to play. Anytime Army is at home, they should be considered the favorite. I guess Vegas recognizes that Duke is really the 2^nd hardest team Army has faced all season, but even then Duke isn’t that impressive of a football team.

            Army’s an extremely tough opponent to game plan for because they run an extremely uncommon offense. They run the Triple Option offence, focused primarily on the ground. They only average 29.6 passing yards per game, but that’s because the majority of the plays in the playbook are running plays. Senior QB Ahmad Bradshaw has only thrown for 190 yards all season, but has been like a running back out there rushing for 1132 yards (on an average of 8.0 yards per carry) good enough for 10^th overall in the nation (2^nd among QBs).

            This is Army’s game, in their stadium, and Duke is going to have to adjust to even have a chance to win this game (let alone cover the 3-point spread). They’re the 41^st best team against the run in the nation but they’re going to have to act like a top-10 run defense if they want to stop Bradshaw and the Black Knights spectacular top-ranked rush offense.

            Duke’s struggles don’t just occur on the defense, they’re offense isn’t the best either. After a 4-0 start, it looked like the Blue Devils we’re going to have a great season, but regression occurred rather quickly and 5 straight losses bring them to 4-5 on the season. They’re tied for 95^th in the entire FBs for points per game and will surely struggle against an Army defense that only allows 18.9 points per game.

            Home field advantage is real here. Give me the underdog at home with a better record, Army wins and moves to 8-2 on the season.

Florida @ South Carolina (-5.5)

            Next up we go to the SEC for a matchup between Florida and South Carolina. Florida comes in 4 straight and in complete disarray. Meanwhile, South Carolina has looked impressive in recent games, losing last week to the #1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs after putting up a real fight.

Firing Jim McElwain hasn’t exactly yielded any positive results yet, as they looked completely lost, disoriented and unmotivated as they got thrashed 45-16 by Missouri. They’re problems are just about everywhere on the field, but starts on the offence. They’re averaging a measly 20.6 points per game. In a very competitive SEC, 20 points a game does not beat many opponents. They’ve been dealing with personnel issues all year, with the suspensions of their star receivers + others at the beginning of the year and QB problems, and this season really just seems like a down year for the usually competitive Gators.

Sophomore QB Jake Bentley hasn’t taken any strides in his 2^nd year leading this Gamecocks offence, but he’s looked rather impressive at home. He’s throwing with a 61.6% completion percentage for 1187 yards and has a 5:2 TD/INT ratio behind the 80000+ that fill Williams-Brice Stadium.

I think Florida keeps it close for the majority of the game, but South Carolina takes over late and ends up covering the spread.

Georgia (-2) @ Auburn

            One of the most anticipated games of Saturdays slate brings the 1^st ranked team in the nation, Georgia Bulldogs, to Jordan-Hare Stadium to face the Auburn Tigers. This is a massive SEC matchup with huge College Football Playoff implications.

            Georgia had a very sound win at home last week against South Carolina, a gritty win that showed how well they can truly perform. They started the season facing a lot of adversity, their starting QB Jacob Eason going down leaving freshman Jake Fromm to try and lead this Bulldog team. He’s delivered. He marched them to a win on the road @ Notre Dame and he’s a big part of the reason why Georgia has been so successful, even considering he’s only had to throw over 20 passes 3 times all season.

            Since Georgia doesn’t throw a lot, they obviously rely on the run. They’re blessed to currently have not 1, but 2 NFL-Caliber senior RBs who carry this team to the 9^th ranked rushing offense in the country.  Coming up against a team that only allows just over 125 rushing yards per game, Georgia is going to have to establish the run game early and rely on Jake Fromm when they need.

            This matchup becomes very interesting when you look at the defenses. Both these teams have spectacular defenses, Georgia allowing only 254 yards (3^rd best in the FBS) and 11.7 points per game and Auburn allowing 307 yards (14^th ranked in the FBS) and 16.9 points per game. Consider here also that the over under here is 48.5 total points, so take the under as well!

            Ultimately, I think this is going to be a great game, very close back and forth action, but the Bulldogs come out victorious here and continue their march towards the playoff.

TCU (+6.5) @ Oklahoma

            Next let’s go to Normal, Oklahoma for an exciting matchup between the TCU Horned Frogs and the Oklahoma Sooners. Last week, Oklahoma got into an absolute shootout in the Bedlam series and that game became an instant classic. What that game also proved that Oklahoma has absolutely no defence.

There’s no debate on their offense, Baker Mayfield has put in Heisman-worthy performance after Heisman-worth performance all year. He’s 2^nd in the nation for passing yards, tied for 3^rd for passing touchdowns and leads the nation in completion percentage, yards per attempt and QBR. Its clear Oklahoma probably has the best offence in the country, but they really haven’t come up against a defense like TCU yet. TCU only limits opposing QB’s to 214.4 passing yards per game, For TCU to win this game (or just cover the spread) they’re going to have to continuously put pressure on Mayfield and force him to make a mistake or 2…. Or 3.

            Where TCU should not be worried is on the offense, they know they can put up points. They average 35.8 points per game on 434 total yards of offense. Kenny Hill has taken this team and turned them into a serious contender. TCU has also played some great football this year, only losing to Iowa State but basically dominating every one team they’ve played, including Oklahoma State on the road.

            If TCU doesn’t win they certainly keep it close, give me the Horned Frogs +6.5 as they look to stop Baker Mayfield’s hope for the Heisman and Oklahoma’s hope for the College Football Playoff.

USC (-14) @ Colorado

            Last game of the day takes us to Boulder where the Trojans of USC (my favorite College team) go on the road to face the Buffaloes of Colorado. While I don’t usually take high spreads, I’m totally willing to swallow the points here in what I think is going to be a big USC win.

            None of Colorado’s wins have been impressive this year as they sit at 5-5 and an extremely poor 2-5 in Pac-12 play. They’re offense averages 420 yards per game and 28 points per game but that’s only inflated because of the amount of bad defenses they’ve faced. The best defenses they’ve faced all year, and the only real truly good teams they’ve faces, Washington and Washington State, have held them to 10 and 0 points respectively. I expect a strong yet underperforming USC defense, which has many NFL hopefuls, to keep Steven Montez & Phillip Lindsay in check and limit the Buffaloes offense.

            Since USC needs to win by a whopping 15 points to cover the spread, they’re going to have to produce on offense. It’s been noted that Sam Darnold has struggled mightily this year with turning the ball over, but he’s turned a corner recently and is truly finding his stride. Other than the horrific Notre Dame game, where they were purely outplayed and dominated, Darnold has thrown for 11 TD’s and 2 INT’s since the shock lost to Washington State. He’s not having as bad of a season in recent weeks, and has showed he’s able to move on quickly from a bad game. Also note, through his early-season struggles, SC only lost to Washington State.  

Darnold is surrounded by playmakers like Deontay Burnett and Michael Pittman at receiver, but he’s truly complimented by Junior RB, Ronald Jones II. Jones is having a career year, already equaling his rushing total from last season in 20 fewer attempts, and already passing his touchdown total from last season (Note there are still 2-3 games left in the season). He’s cemented himself as one of the top running backs in the nation, and is poised for another monster performance against a Buffaloes team that gives up 200 yards per game rushing.

Look for the Trojan offense to feature Ronald Jones and hopefully sprinkle in some of the very impressive freshman Stephen Carr, who returned last week from injury. The combination of Darnold + Jones/Carr is going to be too much for Colorado to handle, and they won’t be able to respond offensively. USC marches into Boulder and comes out with their confidence high on the march back towards a prime Bowl game.

This week I’m doing something a bit different. Looking at stats and having prior knowledge can only get you so far, but maybe sometimes it takes less knowledge to be more successful. I’ve asked my friend, Jared Fried, to give me some of his picks for this upcoming week. Admittedly not knowing much, Jared hopes you’ll follow his lead. This will either be called Fried’s Fixes or Fried’s Failures, obviously depending on how he does:

Alabama (-13.5) @ Mississippi State

TCU @ Oklahoma (-6.5)

Arizona State @ UCLA (-3.0)

Georgia (-2) @ Auburn

Michigan State (+17.5) @ Ohio State
Purdue @ Northwestern (-4)

As you guys can tell, we have some differences, so somebody will come out of this week looking rather stupid. Before I go, here are some other games I like:

Michigan State (+17.5) @ Ohio State

NC State @ Boston College (+3.5)

Michigan (-17) @ Maryland

Kentucky (+1.5) @ Vanderbilt

Washington State @ Utah (+1)

Purdue @ Northwestern (-4)

Tennessee @ Missouri (-12.5)

Notre Dame (-3.5) @ Miami

Thanks for reading, hope you guys enjoyed! Good luck with all your best this weekend!