College Football Bets - Week 10

Alright, last week I can officially say man was not hot. Kind of shitty way to start my blog but that’s okay, last week I took an L but this week I’ll bounce back! This week I have more bets, which means more chances to be wrong, but roll with me here I’m sure you’ll make some money!

Penn State @ Michigan State (+9.0)

            First off we have a battle of 2 teams who I backed last week. #7 Penn State tries to bounce back after a tough loss @ Ohio State against the 24^th ranked Spartans of Michigan State, fresh off their triple OT loss to Northwestern last week.

            Michigan State did everything right to win last weeks game, included limiting Justin Jackson to a measly 41 yards on 17 carries. They were in a back and forth tight matchup that could have gone anyway, just happened to go Northwesterns way at the end of the 3^rd overtime.

            Sophomore QB Brian Lewerke recovered last week from a shaky previous 3 games. Completing over 68% of his passes for 445 yards and 4 touchdowns. Combine that with a still stout defense, even though they gave up 36 points last week, and I think Michigan State can give Penn State a real run for their money, backed by the 75000 Spartan faithful who fill Spartan Stadium.

            Penn State doesn’t turn the ball over that much, and has an electric offence that’s puts Heisman-hopeful Saquon Barkley at the forefront. Michigan State has to gameplan and focus on Saquon like they did for Justin Jackson last week.

            If they can avoid getting into a shootout with a team averaging almost 40 points a game and they can keep possession of the ball longer than Penn State does, I like the Spartans to cover the fairly high 9-point spread.

Northwestern (+1.0) @ Nebraska

            “Ethan, you’re picking a team you called average at best last week, why?” First off, yes I am picking a team I bashed last week but it’s my blog I can do as I please. I also said last week that Northwestern hasn’t beaten any impressive opponents, yet. A ranked Michigan State is an opponent I consider impressive.

            Look for Justin Jackson to bounce back this week, and look for Northwesterns defense, lead by reining Big Ten defensive player of the week, Paddy Fisher, to keep the Cornhuskers in check this week and get that big road win.

            Northwestern has one of the stronger run defenses, but the passing game is usually what drives the ball downfield against these Wildcats. After giving up almost 450 passing yards last week, Northwestern has to do a better job at not letting Nebraska receivers get in and behind them, specifically junior standout Stanley Morgan Jr.

            Nebraska really hasn’t looked impressive all year, pulling off wins against the likes of Arkansas State and Illinois (who hasn’t beaten Illinois though) and losing big to ranked teams like Wisconsin and Ohio State. They squeaked out a 1-point win last week against the Boilermakers of Purdue, I personally don’t believe they should even be favored in this game, even if it is by 1.

Wisconsin @ Indiana (+13.5)

            Told you guys I love the underdogs! Sticking with the Big Ten for my third matchup, I’m backing the Hoosiers of Indiana here. Not only do I think that Wisconsin won’t cover the 2 touchdown spread, but I actually see a strong possibility that the 9^th ranked Badgers go down for the first time this year.

            Wisconsin is 8-0 this year, one of 5 undefeated teams less, but their strength of schedule is probably one of the weakest in the nation. Michigan might be the toughest opponent they come against all year, in Week 12. So far they’re most impressive win came against Utah State, and a lot of games have actually been closer.

            Wisconsin’s true freshman stud Jonathan Taylor has been running all over FBS defenses, averaging an incredible 7.4 yards per carry this season. Expect Indiana to try to stop him, but who knows how successful they will be. Indiana has to build on the 39 points they scored last week, in a losing effort, and try to push the tempo against a tough Badgers defense that’s only allowed an average of only 268 yards per game and a spectacular 12.9 points per game.

            Indiana’s 3-5 this season, but have kept it close in some very intense games. All 3 of their last losses have been single digit losses. They pushed Michigan to overtime, ultimately losing by a touchdown, they lead Michigan State for the majority of the game before losing and they only lost, on the road, to a very hot Maryland team by only a field goal. Even if they lose, they tend to keep games close.

As I know how hard it is to directly predict upsets, I wouldn’t take the money line on this game, but give me Indiana +13.5 this week.

Virginia Tech @ Miami (+2.5)

            Let me get this straight. An undefeated team… ranked #10 overall in the nation… at home… is an UNDERDOG?? I don’t get this line at all, but Vegas always knows best.

            I partially understand why Virginia Tech is favored here; they’ve only lost one game all year, to #2 ranked Clemson. Strength of schedule though for the Hokies has not been their friend. They’re stats are extremely deceptive. They’ve put up 35 points a game on an average of 446 offensive yards… against the likes of North Carolina, Delaware, Old Dominion and East Carolina, very easy opponents they should have dominated. These easy opponents are also the reason why they’re defense has only given up 11.5 points per game, again amazing on paper but if you look closer its been expected.

            The U has its swagger back! This years Miami team is being compared to Miami teams of the 1980s and early 2000s and are serious contenders for the College Football Playoff, in my opinion. They’ve had to grind out close wins, almost losing to Florida State & Georgia Tech, but it just seems that when the going gets tough this team toughens up. Even after losing all pro Mark Walton for the season and reliable WR Ahmmon Richards for a while as well, Miami still finds a way to stay undefeated.

            This tough and resilient team also has a spectacular defense, one that surely strikes fear in its opponents. With Travon McMilliam seriously struggling this year, I expect Miami to put more pressure on freshman QB Josh Jackson. He’s had a spectacular season, to date, but I expect the freshman nerves to hit hard and for Jackson to struggle a bit.

            I found it interesting doing research that both Josh Jackson for the Hokies and Malik Rosier have had scary similar seasons, with Jackson throwing for 2032 yards, 17 TDs and 4 INTS and Rosier throwing for 2071 yards, 17 TDs and 4 INTs.

As similar as these teams look now, from quarterback play to defensive effort, I expect the Hurricanes to win this game and continue their march towards the College Football Playoffs.

LSU (+21) @ Alabama

            I’ve bet against Alabama before with them as big favorites and it’s burned me, so why not play with fire twice right?

            This is a huge rivalry match between two top college programs. The LSU-Bama rivalry has been a long-standing fixture in the SEC and we’re set for another great matchup. Bama currently won the last 6 straight, I think they win, but can’t swallow the points on this one I think the Tigers keep it closer than expected.

            LSU’s team quality has gone down since the 2011/2012 teams that went to back-to-back BCS titles against Alabama, but Ed Orgeron’s men seem to still have fight in them.

Lead by future NFL hopeful Derrius Guice, the Tigers are riding high after 3 straight wins, following a shocking loss to Troy. LSU is a powerful offence who average around 415 yards per game, so they can move the ball down the field, but finishing is not their strong suit. 415 yards should translate to more than 27 points per game, but for LSU it doesn’t. They’re going to have to rely a lot on Guice and senior QB Danny Etling to produce against probably the best defenses in the entire FBS, one that only allows 9.8 points per game.

Even considering their strength of schedule is rather weaker, currently ranked 34^th by ESPN and 82^nd by SB Nation for the remainder of the season, Alabama is basically a lock for the College Football Playoff barring any crazy upset.

Bama will win this game I’m very certain of that, but I just think given the history between these teams, this game will be much closer than a 3 TD Bama domination game. LSU will test Alabama this week so Geaux Tigers!

Well, there you guys go for Week 10! 5 predictions, 5 wins (I hope), down below I’ll leave some other lines I like but won’t go into detail on, just some other predictions:

Baylor (-7.5) @ Kansas

East Carolina @ Houston (-24.5)

Kansas State @ Texas Tech (-3.5)

Syracuse @ Florida State (-7)

Clemson (-7) @ NC State

Iowa State (+2.5) @ West Virginia

Maryland (-2.5) @ Rutgers

Colorado State (-3.5) @ Wyoming

Auburn (-15) @ Texas A&M

Texas @ TCU (-6.5)

Southern Mississippi (+6.5) @ Tennessee

San Diego State (-23.5) @ San Jose State

Arizona @ USC (-7.5) #FightOn

Thank you guys again for the support and good luck this week!