College Football Bets – Week 9

I often find College Football the hardest to predict. Week after week, upsets occur that shock the nation (Syracuse beat Clemson in Week 7; Oklahoma was shocked by, then unranked, Iowa State in Week 6; if I wrote all the upsets that have occurred this season this article would be at least 15 pages long).

Personally, I feel that the excitement in following and watching College Football comes from the potential volatility in every matchup. Just knowing that it’s possible for LSU to lose to a team it PAID TO PLAY AGAINST (Yes, this actually happened this year… against Troy) keeps me glued to my TV every Saturday afternoon.

While I find it impossible to predict upsets, I would never put my money on any underdog to win outright. Yet, I rarely find myself swallowing points when I make a bet. Last week, I took Tennessee as +36.5 point underdogs against Alabama. Yes, I knew they weren’t going to win, but I truly believed in their ability to not lose by more than 5 touchdowns!  I was riding pretty until late in the 4^th quarter, when after a Tennessee touchdown was called back, Alabama scored one more touchdown with 4:49 left in the game to bring the score to 45-7, a 38-point difference.

Its true that you can’t win them all, especially if you have my luck, if you win anything over 60% of your bets every week, you’re in the money! That being said, here are some of my predictions for this upcoming week of college football, choose the bets of mine that you want to follow wisely:

Florida State (-3.5) @ Boston College

Week 9 brings us some very close and exciting in-conference matchups, and it starts in the ACC with Florida State going to Boston to face the Eagles.

A lot of signs point against giving the Seminoles points here: Boston College is coming off of two great road wins as underdogs (@ Louisville and @ Virginia), where the offence put up 45 and 41 points in each game respectively. That being said, I still like Jimbo Fisher’s boys to win this game.

Losing Deondre François was an absolute blow to Florida State, can’t even deny it, but freshman James Blackman has not done a bad job filling in for him. Cam Ayers and Jacques Patrick have more then replaced the production of Dalvin Cook, averaging 5.2 and 5.7 yards per carry respectively, and their defense boasts future NFL talent like Derwin James, Tarvarus McFadden, Matthew Thomas and Derrick Nnadi.

This Florida State team has had an extremely tough schedule so far this year marked by opening the year against the #1 ranked team in the nation. Remember, this team was picked by many to make the College Football Playoff at the beginning of the year! 3 of their 4 losses have been all been by under 7 points and came against very tough opponents in NC State, Miami and Louisville. This team is much better than its 2-4 record.

Freshman are bound to make mistakes, only a part of the learning process, and Blackman’s fumble he lost with 2 minutes left in the 4^th quarter is what lost Florida State that game. If Blackman can cut down the mistakes and Florida State can keep the 2-headed dragon in the backfield of Cam Ayers and Jacques Patrick rolling, I’m confident they’ll be able march into Boston College and come out with the victory.

Michigan State (-2.5) @ Northwestern

            It’s not often where I swallow points, especially in College Football, but here’s another case where I find myself extremely comfortable picking a team to cover the spread.

            Let me get this straight, Northwestern is an AVERAGE team, at best. Their 4-3 record is very accurate, no shocking wins, no shocking losses. Michigan State is the 16^th ranked team in the nation, sitting comfortable atop the Big 10 East division with a record of 5-1. Northwesterns’ offence runs through NFL hopeful senior RB, Justin Jackson. In games where Jackson hasn’t reached 90 yard rushing, they’re 0-3.  

            Michigan State’s defense turned a corner in recent games, they’ve limited their opponents to 10 points or under in 3 of their past 4 games. Last week, against Indiana, we saw the emergence of sophomore linebacker Joe Bachie, who took home national & Big 10 defensive player of the week honors by PFF College Football. With a solid secondary with the ability to force turnovers, Michigan State should be able to shut down the Wildcats’ offence rather handedly.

            I think the only argument really against the Spartans covering is the fact that they tend to stay in close games. 3 of their last 4 have all come from under a touchdown, the 4^th win being by 8 points but only because LJ Scott scored a late touchdown when all he needed to do was get a first down to ice the game.

            Michigan State has played in some close games this year. If the spread was anything above -5.5 we would be having a different conversation. Contain Justin Jackson, swallow the points and go Spartans!

TCU (-6.5) @ Iowa State

            I started off kind of flip-flopping between my picks here but I eventually settled on this game ending with another TCU win. Don’t get me wrong; this will be a tight game throughout, but I see Kenny “Trill”, as he used to be called, and the Horned Frogs pull away by a touchdown or more.

            Don’t get me wrong; I’ve ridden Iowa State 3 weeks in a row in my bets and its paid dividends. I’ve actually been extremely impressed by a team that I didn’t expect too much from. David Montgomery has been absolutely spectacular this season and a big reason why the Cyclones have been as successful as they are. They’ve pulled off some spectacular wins this year against extremely quality opponents like Oklahoma and Texas Tech, the later of the two being in rather impressive fashion, and, due to those wins, now find themselves ranked for the first time since 2005.

            TCU is tied for 9^th in the nation averaging 41.6 points per game. Before the season, not many people had TCU on their radar and now the Horned Frogs find themselves ranked as the 4^th best team in the entire nation. Such an intense game with big implications means a high-scoring, excitement filled fight between these two scorching teams.

            While I don’t usually bet on point totals, for some reason the over/under for this game sits at 48.5 total points. Vegas probably knows something I don’t, but given how potent both offences are, take the over!

            Don’t sleep on the Horned Frogs, I say they march right into Armes and prove to the nation they rightfully deserve to be in the College Football playoff talk at this point in the season.

Penn State (+6.5) @ Ohio State

            Finally a game that I’ve decided to go against the spread, and it had to be the biggest game of the week! These 2 teams are clear favorites in the College Football Playoff race, if they can both end the season with 1 loss. For that to happen, 6^th ranked Ohio State would have to knock off the 2^nd best team in the nation, the Nittany Lions of Penn State.

            Ohio State, at home, in Columbus, surrounded by 104 994 screaming fans, is an extremely daunting test. Ohio State barely lost last year at Penn State and seems keen on getting revenge back at their home grounds.

            This game showcases some of the top collegiate talent in the nation on both ends of the sidelines. Many questions surrounded JT Barrett and his ability to lead this Ohio State offence, but true freshman J.K. Dobbins has completely taken over this offence and has added some excitement that the Buckeyes haven’t seen since the Zeke days.

            Don’t discount the Nittany Lions! Coming off of a heartbreaking loss to the USC Trojans in last year’s Rose Bowl, Penn State, specifically Saquon Barkley, have reminded every critic and fan that they are one of the best teams in the nation.

            Ohio State is 6-1, but that record comes with an astrix. They’re wins have come against teams like Rutgets, Army, UNLV, Indiana (probably the best competition out of the bunch), amongst a couple others. The only real test they’ve had, against Oklahoma, and they lost…. at home…. in a game that wasn’t really that close.

Bound to be one of the best games of the year, both teams are going to keep it extremely close. It will probably end in some crazy late-game drama so it doesn’t matter who wins in the end, just give me the points, Penn State +6.5 book it!

Thank you so much for checking out some of my bets for this week! If you have any comments I'd love to hear about them! Anything you want me to talk about? Let me know!